Mapping the impact of climate and demographic change on thermal demand

The development of district heating and cooling (DHC) networks is on the rise because of their potential to provide efficient, cost-effective and flexible large- scale low-carbon heating and cooling to meet current and future energy and environmental challenges. In this context, business developers of DHC networks need to have an idea of the evolution of heating and cooling demand in the coming decades. That’s why Lab Crigen has undertaken a study in 2022 to map the heating and cooling demand all over the world in the face of such evolutions. The study sheds light on how climate change, as well as other factors such as population density, will impact this demand around the world. The results are available online via the CIRA webtool and can be used by the Business Platform Local Energy Network business developers to extend existing facilities or develop new assets.

From creating climate indicators to modelling future energy demand

The study builds further on maps showing the current potential heating and cooling demand (TWh) in each km² of the world. The heating demand is the result of the residential and commercial demand for heating and the use of hot water, while the cooling demand quantifies the air conditioning demand arising from these two types of buildings.

Climate indicators, such as degree days, have been calculated for the current climate and for decades from 2030 to 2050, with the help of resources provided by “Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace” (IPSL). Based on these indicators, calculations were made to quantify the impact of climate change on heating and cooling demand around the world. This was done for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Support for the extension of existing networks and DHC development plans

ENGIE business developers can consult the results through the CIRA geo portal. “This will allow them to adjust their business plans for the adaptation and extension of existing DHC networks, and for the development of new ones,” says expert Florent Cornet.

Additional analyses can be carried out for specific projects, enhancing and enriching the information by considering changes in the quality of the building stock as a result of energy retrofits and government policies.